The World Economic Forum has released its annual Global Risks Report, which shows that half of those surveyed anticipate a turbulent or stormy world over the next two years, up 14 percentage points from last year. A further 40% expect the two-year outlook to be unsettled at the very least, while 9% expect stability and 1% predict calm. When it comes to the outlook for the next 10 years, 57% expect a turbulent or stormy world, 32% expect things to be unsettled, 10% predict stability and 1% anticipate calm.
The report analyses risks across three timeframes: immediate (2026); short-to-medium term (the next two years); and long term (the next 10 years). In the near term, armed conflict, the weaponization of economic tools, and societal fragmentation are colliding. As these immediate risks intensify, longer-term challenges from technological acceleration to environmental decline are also creating knock-on effects.
Geopolitical, economic, and geoeconomic risks surge
Geoeconomic confrontation tops the near-term rankings, with 18% of respondents viewing it as the risk most likely to trigger a global crisis in 2026, as well as being ranked 1st for severity over the next two years, up eight positions from last year. State-based armed conflict follows in 2nd position for 2026, dropping to 5th position in the two-year timeframe.
In a world of rising rivalries and prolonged conflicts, confrontation threatens supply chains and broader global economic stability as well as the cooperative capacity required to address economic shocks. When it comes to the geopolitical outlook, 68% of respondents expect a ‘multipolar or fragmented order’ over the next decade, up four points from last year.
Economic risks show the largest collective increase in the two-year outlook. Economic downturn and inflation risks both surged eight positions, to 11th and 21st respectively, while asset bubble burst rose seven to 18th position. Mounting debt concerns and potential asset bubbles, amid geoeconomic tensions, could trigger a new phase of volatility.
Technology, societies, and the environment
Misinformation and disinformation ranks 2nd on the two-year outlook while cyber insecurity ranks 6th. Adverse outcomes of AI show the starkest trajectory, climbing from 30th in the two-year horizon to 5th in the 10-year horizon, reflecting anxiety about implications for labour markets, societies, and security.
Societal polarization ranks 4th in 2026 and 3rd by 2028. Inequality is in 7th position in the two- and 10-year outlooks. Inequality was also selected as the most interconnected risk for a second consecutive year, fuelling other risks as social mobility falters. Economic downturn is the second-most interconnected. Underlying these interconnections are concerns about cost-of-living pressures and K-shaped economies becoming entrenched.
With short-term concerns overtaking long-term objectives, environmental risks declined in ranking in the two-year outlook. Extreme weather dropped from 2nd to 4th, pollution from 6th to 9th, while critical change to Earth systems and biodiversity loss fell seven and five positions respectively. All environmental risks declined in severity score, representing an absolute shift, not just a relative one. Yet over the 10-year period, they remain the most severe – the top three are extreme weather, biodiversity loss, and critical change to Earth systems. Three-quarters of respondents expect a turbulent or stormy environmental outlook, the most negative of any category.
The table below summarises the top ten short and long term global risks ranked by severity:
