The UK Government Office for Science has published a new Foresight report setting out an evidence-based approach to supply chain risk and resilience.
Global Supply Chains: A Foresight report on risk and resilience brings together evidence, analysis, and long-term thinking in this area. It ‘provides a practical approach that enables policy makers, analysts, and those working on supply chain resilience to identify vulnerabilities, test assumptions and explore how supply chains may respond under different future conditions. This includes the use of scenarios and analytical methods designed to support more resilient decision-making in an uncertain world’.
Key findings include:
Supply chains are networks, not chains, and risk is concentrated
Supply chains are complex, multi‑tier networks, not linear chains. As a result, risk is typically highly concentrated in a small number of firms, routes, and chokepoints that play system‑critical roles. Disruption spreads through network connections, not just direct trade links, which is why targeted and system‑level interventions are more effective than broad, undifferentiated approaches.
Many critical risks are shared and need coordinated action
Even well‑prepared firms can fail together. Shared suppliers, regions, infrastructure, and routes mean disruption often affects whole sectors at once. Managing these risks therefore requires coordination beyond individual companies at regional, sectoral or national level to address system‑wide vulnerabilities.
Supply chain vulnerability and resilience operate at multiple levels and resilience is an ongoing process
There is no single ‘supply chain problem’. Risk emerges from the interaction of firm‑level practices, network structure, and external shocks, and resilience involves trade‑offs. Effective responses are context specific and iterative, not one‑off fixes or universal solutions.
Tomorrow’s risks are increasingly rooted in the earlier, less visible stages of supply chains and are evolving faster than firms are adapting
Pressure points are probably shifting away from final manufacturing with increasing pressures on raw materials, processing, and transport infrastructure. While many firms are adapting, limited multi‑tier visibility and recovery capacity mean systemic risks are evolving faster than current responses, requiring earlier, more proactive intervention.
Climate and geopolitics are risk multipliers and adaptation is essential for future supply chain resilience
Climate change and geopolitics increasingly amplify each other, especially at shared global chokepoints, making disruption more frequent, severe, and persistent. Climate adaptation will be essential for supply chain resilience over coming decades, but it is also harder to deliver in a fragmented geopolitical landscape, where cooperation is constrained.
