The ‘anticipation’  aspect of the crisis management process

By Alberto G. Alexander

Anticipation in relation to crisis management is the process of identifying potential crises before they happen so that organizations can prepare and reduce risks. Anticipation is a key part of a crisis management capability and refers to the ability to detect critical developments within the organization or in its environment and to adapt proactively. In this article, crisis anticipation is described, and actions related to both the internal and external environments are presented.

Introduction

Crises are becoming more complex, increasingly transboundary, and interconnected. In a sense, crises have become endemic features of modern society. This evolution is partly due to long-term trends such as globalisation, mass communication, social fragmentation, and the changing geopolitical environment.

The potential impact of future crises is likely to increase. As Perrow recognised as far back as 1999, “As the complexity and coupling of ever-larger, complex systems continue to increase, small disruptions will lead to rapid escalation.” (1).

Before discussing crisis anticipation, it is important to define crisis. A crisis is an event with a low probability of occurrence but potentially high negative impact on the organization. It affects strategic objectives, reputation, and viability, and demands a swift resolution.

Crisis anticipation

In my previous Resilience Forward article, A five-stage framework for a crisis management process, the stages of crisis management are outlined. This article focuses on the first stage: anticipation.

A key aspect of anticipation is analysing both the internal and external environments surrounding the organization. The internal environment includes employees and organizational culture. The external environment consists of all stakeholders who have some vested interest in the organization but are not directly part of it. Stakeholders include regulators, industry bodies, media, and other companies in the value chain.

Figure one: the crisis anticipation process

Internal environment actions

Identify organizational weaknesses

Actions to identify weaknesses include:

• Reviewing work processes: identify inefficiencies, rigidity, poor service, or weak leadership.
• Talk to people! ‘Management by walking around’ builds trust, helps employees feel safe and valued, and reveals practical insights. People in the organization know the business better than any expert.

Determine crisis management preparation

Preparation involves:

• Conducting risk assessments to identify potential crises that could impact the organization. Vulnerabilities need to be evaluated to analyze the organization’s weaknesses to determine which areas are most susceptible to crises. The organization should then rank potential crises based on their likelihood and potential impact.
• Developing a comprehensive crisis plan which outlines procedures for responding to various potential crises. This also needs to allocate specific roles and responsibilities to team members, ensuring clear lines of authority and communication.
• Establishing communication protocols.
• Training teams and conducting simulations.

Evaluate organizational safety policies

Evaluate organizational safety policies by assessing clarity, comprehensiveness, accessibility, implementation, control measures, training, monitoring, and improvement processes.

External environment actions

Determine the degree of industry vulnerability

Industry vulnerabilities refer to flaws or weaknesses in a company’s systems, processes, or operations that can be exploited by external malicious actors, leading to security breaches, data loss, operational disruptions, or severe crises. These vulnerabilities can be in hardware, software, or even employee behaviour.

Steps for making an assessment of vulnerabilities include:

• Identifying and categorising critical assets
• Conducting vulnerability assessments
• Calculating and prioritising risks.

Determine political stability

Political stability refers to consistent governance and rule of law. It enables planning and reduces risk of upheaval. Assessment should identify possible crisis scenarios based on national and international context.

Consider globalisation implications

Globalisation may expose firms to new risks and crisis triggers. To assess this area several things need to be considered. These include:

• The organization’s current level of globalization,
• The impacts on its operations and strategy, and
• The risks and opportunities it faces. 

Factors to evaluate include: market access, competition, cultural differences, resource allocation, and the overall impact on the company’s value chain. 

Assess technological implications

Technological crises may stem from a variety of events, including accidents, pollution, software failures, or disruptions linked to natural hazards. Assess technology by examining:

• Alignment with strategy
• Process efficiency
• Technology gaps and threats.

Anticipation and resilience

Anticipation is a proactive capability to detect and respond to emerging issues. It does not eliminate crises, but enables faster, more adaptive responses. The key capabilities offered by anticipation include:

• Observing internal and external developments
• Identifying threats
• Preparing for uncertainty.

Effective anticipation enables organizations to identify early warning signs and act decisively. When embedded within a culture of resilience, it enhances preparedness, reduces risk, and strengthens long-term adaptability.

Reference

(1) Perrow, C. (1999), Normal Accidents: Living with High-Risk Technologies, Second edition, Princeton University Press, Princeton.

The author

Dr Alberto G. Alexander holds a PhD from the University of Kansas and an MA from Northern Michigan University. He is an MBCI, BCMS IRCA Lead Auditor, and Approved Tutor. He is Managing Director of the international consulting and managerial training firm Eficiencia Gerencial y Productividad SAC, based in Lima, Peru. He can be contacted at alexander@egpsac.com