The wider impacts of climate change are being examined by researchers at the US Department of Energy’s Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL).
What if people become desperate for food? What if long-dormant microbes come to life due to thawing permafrost? What if water and electricity become scarce? These and other questions are being explored by PNNL in a series of national forums.
National security has many facets affected directly by climate. It involves energy and water, which may be more obvious, but also food security, infrastructure, and health. These are all critical to national security and overall human security.
Jill Brandenberger, PNNL climate security research lead
Understanding the changes starts with fundamental insights about the climate. PNNL uses the US Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), a sophisticated undertaking to model climate and human interactions. The model is the starting point for many scientific studies exploring Earth’s future. At the same time, PNNL is one of the US’s leading resources on national security issues, addressing an array of traditional and emerging threats. Combining these two areas enables the assessment of the social and economic impacts, not just the climate hazards, that will be influenced by climate change: and from this a broader understanding of the future security risks is emerging.
Resilience Forward comment
From an organizational point of view it is important to consider that the effects of climate change are not just limited to weather and climatological impacts. Resilience involves planning for the long term and being prepared to adapt as necessary. Making changes in advance of actual impacts will always be less disruptive and often more cost effective than waiting until your organization is in the midst of disruption.
In terms of societal impacts from climate change, areas to consider include the following. Making an assessment of how exposed your organization could be to impacts in these areas is a first step.
Health: climate change is likely to have widespread health impacts, including an increase in heat-related illnesses and deaths, more frequent and intense respiratory disorders due to pollution and allergens, and greater spread of infectious diseases. As global temperatures rise, regions previously free from diseases like malaria and dengue fever may start seeing cases.
Economic impacts: economies, especially those heavily reliant on climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, forestry, and tourism, are likely to experience significant disruptions. Increased frequency and severity of weather events such as hurricanes, floods, and droughts can cause massive economic losses. The effects of economic impacts on areas such as price inflation also need to be considered.
Migration and displacement: rising sea levels and increased frequency of extreme weather events are expected to displace millions of people, creating large numbers of climate refugees. This displacement could potentially increase conflict over scarce resources and could exacerbate community tensions, increasing the risk of social disorder.
Food security: climate change is expected to affect food production significantly, with potential reductions in crop yields and increased crop failures due to altered weather patterns, increased pests and diseases, and water scarcity. This could lead to higher food prices and increased food insecurity.
Water resources: the availability of fresh water is predicted to become more uncertain due to climate change. Changes in precipitation patterns and the melting of glaciers can lead to water shortages and affect water quality, impacting both human consumption, agricultural use, and hydroelectric power generation.
Social inequality: the impacts of climate change are likely to be more severe for the poor and vulnerable who have less ability to adapt and are more dependent on climate-sensitive resources. This will exacerbate existing social, economic, and political inequities which in turn will increase the risk of social unrest.
Infrastructure: infrastructure may be increasingly vulnerable to climate impacts, requiring significant investments in adaptation measures. Extreme weather events and sea-level rise can damage transportation, buildings, and energy infrastructure, leading to substantial economic costs. Resulting pressures, for example on energy supply, could have severe knock-on impacts.
Biodiversity and ecosystems: climate change can lead to the loss of biodiversity and changes in ecosystem services that humans rely on, such as pollination, water purification, and flood protection. As species face extinction and ecosystems alter, there may be cascading effects on human societies that rely on these natural services.
