In comments made while launching NOAA’s 2024 Atlantic hurricane season forecast, Lori Arguelles, Director of Strategic Communications and Partnerships for NOAA stated that: “This season is looking to be an extraordinary one in a number of ways.”
NOAA is predicting an above-normal 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, with the forecast for named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes being the highest NOAA has ever issued during the May outlook.
NOAA predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season. It is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 8 to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). Forecasters have a 70% confidence in these ranges.
The factors driving the above forecasts include near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, development of La Niña conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds, and less wind shear, all of which tend to support tropical storm formation. This season also has the potential for an above-normal west African monsoon, which can produce African easterly waves that seed some of the strongest and longer-lived Atlantic storms.
