De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) has released a Working Paper which explores the technique of exploratory modelling and analysis (EMA) as a framework for scenario analysis under deep uncertainty.
While the paper is aimed at understanding the use of exploratory modelling and analysis within the macroeconomic environment, the technique may be of interest for risk and resilience professionals who are looking at ways to use advanced modelling to inform scenario development.
In the Working Paper, ‘Identifying scenarios of interest under deep uncertainty’, the authors explain that EMA was developed as a tool to support decision-making in complex systems characterised by deep uncertainty. Its core objective is to identify scenarios that are relevant, without relying on strong assumptions about the underlying distributions of uncertainties. EMA has been applied in a wide range of disciplines, including climate and flood risk, energy, and supply chain analysis.
