New research that will be presented at the ESCMID Global Congress in Barcelona, Spain (27-30 April) shows that, in a survey in which infectious diseases experts were asked to rank pathogens in order of their pandemic potential, influenza was considered the pathogen of highest pandemic risk. 57% ranked influenza as number one, and a further 17% ranked it second.
The study, by Dr Jon Salmanton-García, University of Cologne, Faculty of Medicine and University Hospital Cologne, Institute of Translational Research, Cologne Excellence Cluster on Cellular Stress Responses in Aging-Associated Diseases (CECAD), Cologne, Germany, and colleagues from across Europe, has been published in the journal Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease.
Other highly ranked pathogens included Disease X (an as yet unknown disease) with 21% ranking this number one and 14% second. SARS-CoV-2 was third in terms of number one responses on 8%, with 16% voting it number two, while the original SARS-CoV virus that circulated in 2002-03 was voted number one by 2% of respondents and second by 8%. Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHF virus) and Ebola virus were joint fifth, with 1.6% respondents voting them first. Nipah virus, henipavirus, and Rift Valley fever virus were among the pathogens ranked lowest in terms of their perceived pandemic potential.
A total of 187 responses were collected from infectious disease experts hailing from 57 different countries.
