Control Risks has published the 2025 edition of RiskMap, its annual forecast of business risks compiled by Control Risks experts worldwide.
One of the highlights of this year’s RiskMap is its focus on the concentration of risk in centralised technological ecosystems (concentration risk), which it forecasts will be a top risk for organizations in 2025.
RiskMap 2025 states that: Concentrating services and capabilities among a few major providers escalates the threat of systemic risks and global disruptions. The proliferation of connected and autonomous devices in critical infrastructure and consumer products will create new vulnerabilities for disruptive cyber attacks. The traditional model of operational control is rapidly becoming obsolete, replaced by a pressing need for adaptability, innovation and resilience in the face of relentless disruption.
Concentration risk in 2025
Although concentration risk has been widely recognised for many years, Control Risks says that threats in this area will increase in 2025 due to:
Nation states stopping hiding behind non-attributable proxy groups for operations in the digital space ‘further increasing the likelihood of tit-for-tat escalations in the digital domain’.
The continued adoption of emerging technologies including AI and industrial robotics will exacerbate concentration risks in 2025.
Most governments have realised the systemic risks that concentrated digital ecosystems pose to their societies but have failed to respond effectively. Control Risks believes that regulations such as NIS2 and DORA will be ineffective at reducing the exposure of most companies to disruptive concentration risks. ‘Worse,’ says Control Risks, ‘they have impeded the ability of some to build resilience through diversification of suppliers and unwittingly fostered the concentration of the development of critical technologies to a handful of players globally.’
