44 leading experts on ocean circulation have written an Open Letter to the Nordic Council of Ministers highlighting the very real risks of severe impacts from a warming climate induced change to the circulation of the AMOC (the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation).
In the letter the experts state that they feel that there is an urgent requirement ‘to draw the attention of the Nordic Council of Ministers to the serious risk of a major ocean circulation change in the Atlantic’.
The AMOC, the dominant mechanism of northward heat transport in the North Atlantic, determines life conditions for all people in the Arctic region and beyond and is increasingly at risk of passing a tipping point says the letter. Tipping point risks are real and can occur within the 1.5-2°C climate range of the Paris Agreement. The world is currently heading well beyond this range (> 2.5°C) the experts state.
The scientists believe that the risk of such an event has been greatly underestimated. Such an ocean circulation change ‘would have devastating and irreversible impacts especially for Nordic countries, but also for other parts of the world’ – including the UK, Ireland, and other parts of Northern Europe.
While further increases in Carbon Dioxide levels are predicted to lead to increases in land temperature in most regions of the world, the impact on the AMOC could result in the UK, Ireland, and Nordic countries becoming much colder than the current long term average.
The letter urges the Council of Nordic Ministers to: initiate an assessment of this significant risk to the Nordic countries and to take steps to minimize this risk as much as possible.
