Close Menu
  • Home
  • Managing resilience
    • AI resilience
    • Business continuity
    • Business resilience
    • Climate resilience
    • C-suite and the board
    • DORA – the EU Digital Operational Resilience Act
    • Operational resilience
    • Organizational resilience
    • Supply chain resilience
    • Technology
  • Risk
    • Enterprise risk management
    • Operational risk
    • Threatscape
  • Cyber resilience
    • Cyber resilience updates
    • DORA – the EU Digital Operational Resilience Act
    • Product updates
More items
  • All News
  • Research
  • Jobs in Resilience
  • Resilience Resources
  • About Resilience Forward
X (Twitter) LinkedIn
  • Home
  • Managing resilience
    • AI resilience
    • Business continuity
    • Business resilience
    • Climate resilience
    • C-suite and the board
    • DORA – the EU Digital Operational Resilience Act
    • Operational resilience
    • Organizational resilience
    • Supply chain resilience
    • Technology
  • Risk
    • Enterprise risk management
    • Operational risk
    • Threatscape
  • Cyber resilience
    • Cyber resilience updates
    • DORA – the EU Digital Operational Resilience Act
    • Product updates
Login
LinkedIn Bluesky
Resilience Forward
Subscribe Now
  • All News
  • Research
  • Jobs in Resilience
  • Resilience Resources
  • About Resilience Forward
Resilience Forward
You are at:Home»Risk»Enterprise risk management»Using AI for risk assessment? be aware of the issue of probabilistic drift (Page 70)
Enterprise risk management

Using AI for risk assessment? be aware of the issue of probabilistic drift

October 8, 20253 Mins Read
Probability distribution chart displaying the likelihood of outcomes in a colourful spectrum.

Artificial intelligence, as we know it, has a problem. Most large language models produce different answers to the same question, even under apparently identical conditions. That inconsistency isn’t a bug – it’s a feature of probability. But when AI is used for risk assessment or decision support, that variability becomes an issue.

There may, however, be a way forward. A new research and engineering framework called Decision Physics claims to show that AI can operate deterministically – producing the same output every time, with full lineage and zero drift.

Developed by Martin Lucas, Chief Innovation Officer at Matrix OS and TheaHQ, the system replaces probabilistic inference with deterministic computation. In a live reproducibility test, 1,000 identical inputs reportedly produced 1,000 identical outputs, each verified through audit-grade receipts.

The findings, published in The 30 Per Cent Problem: The World Is Arguing with Its Own Machines, suggest that trillions in potential global AI value may be lost through drift and instability. Each non-reproducible output compounds uncertainty, reduces auditability, and erodes business confidence in automated systems.

“AI has become our new infrastructure,” says Martin Lucas. “But it’s built on probability, not physics. The same model can disagree with itself across two runs – which means trust, compliance, and accountability all start to erode before scaling begins. We needed a new foundation. So we built one.”

The science behind Decision Physics

Decision Physics introduces four proposed laws of deterministic computation:

  • DP-1: Replay Invariance – identical inputs and states yield identical outputs.
  • DP-2: Symbolic Isomorphism – semantically equivalent statements resolve to identical canonical forms.
  • DP-3: Lineage Conservation – every output carries immutable provenance (Λ).
  • DP-4: Drift Nullification – output stability persists despite model or corpus updates.

This framework aims to transform AI from stochastic sampling into deterministic function mapping – aligning machine intelligence with the principles of reproducible science.

The research leveraged a proprietary deterministic build environment, the TheaHQ Deterministic Build Pack, implementing deterministic clocks, seeded randomisation, and verification receipts. Across 1,000 test iterations, every output was identical at the bit level, confirmed via SHA digest verification.

The experiment indicates that AI systems may be able to achieve audit-grade reproducibility – a development that could pave the way for regulator-ready verification in finance, healthcare, defence, and government applications.

The implications

Deterministic AI could offer major benefits, including:

  • Regulatory compliance: reproducible outputs that meet audit and legal standards
  • Scientific reproducibility: research that can finally be replicated identically
  • Economic stability: models that do not compound uncertainty
  • Operational trust: systems that think consistently, not statistically.
More details (PDF)

Editor’s note

While the principles of Decision Physics are still emerging and require independent validation, they raise important questions for resilience and risk professionals. If deterministic AI proves viable at scale, it could mark a step change in the reliability, auditability, and trustworthiness of machine-driven decision systems.

Africa Asia Asia Pacific Australasia Europe Middle East North America UK
Share. Facebook Twitter Pinterest LinkedIn Tumblr Email WhatsApp
Previous ArticleRansomware resilience capabilities are improving but two-thirds of EMEA organizations do not have an effective response in place
Next Article Resilience: the art and science of thriving in an uncertain world

Related Posts

A group of rabbits happily graze while a wolf watches, hidden in the bushes behind them.

Confidence in resilience is outpacing reality, according to new report

November 13, 2026
An upward trending arrow.

Organizations are being forced to rethink resilience strategies, finds State of IT Infrastructure Resilience study

November 13, 2026
Error page: 'This site can't be reached' message from a browser, indicating connection closed and suggesting checks (reload button visible).

Microsoft outage demonstrates the realities of concentration risks

November 13, 2026
The numbers 2027 with the 0 replaced with an AI symbol.

From hype to control: AI security, risk management, and governance in 2027

November 13, 2026
Geopolitical risks

Geopolitical conflict is increasingly reshaping how organizations manage people, operations, and risk

November 9, 2026
Abstract network of interconnected nodes and lines in blue.

Everbridge publishes its 2027 Global Risk & Resilience Outlook

November 9, 2026
Advertisement
Resilience First
This week's most read articles
AI agent in action concept.

Lack of clear activity baselines makes it harder to manage AI agent resilience and security

November 9, 2026
Error page: 'This site can't be reached' message from a browser, indicating connection closed and suggesting checks (reload button visible).

Microsoft outage demonstrates the realities of concentration risks

November 13, 2026
Two different jigsaw pieces.

KPMG Risk & Resilience Survey finds that half of organizations have yet to integrate risk and resilience management

March 12, 2025
Latest resources
Resilience Framework

BCI launches the Resilience Framework Edition 1.0 at BCI World

November 1, 2024
Load More

Subscribe to Updates

Get our Resilience Updates newsletter.

Most Popular Feature Articles
Five stage crisis management framework

A five stage framework for a crisis management process

Three dark coloured light bulbs on a black background illustrate the concept of The Dark Triad in Crisis Management.

The Dark Triad in crisis management

Blue interconnected gears and network nodes symbolizing automation and complex machinery.

Agent zero – the 2028 digital pandemic

Latest Reports
An AI agent icon lying on its side with eyes shut showing the concept of a deactivated agent.

New report reveals major operational resilience gaps in agentic AI adoption

Two hands form a rectangular frame around the sun in a bright sky over distant mountains.

BCI Future of Resilience Report points to a more strategic future for resilience

Global risks concept

UN report warns that the global risk landscape is being redrawn

A promo box for an article about resilience governance.
© 2026 Resilience Forward
  • About Resilience Forward
  • Newsletter
  • Newsfeed
  • Advertise
  • Call for Papers
  • Contact
  • Privacy Policy and Cookie Use
  • AI Use Policy

Type above and press Enter to search. Press Esc to cancel.

Manage Cookie Consent
To provide the best experiences, we use technologies like cookies to store and/or access device information. Consenting to these technologies will allow us to process data such as browsing behaviour or unique IDs on this site. Not consenting or withdrawing consent, may adversely affect certain features and functions.
Functional Always active
The technical storage or access is strictly necessary for the legitimate purpose of enabling the use of a specific service explicitly requested by the subscriber or user, or for the sole purpose of carrying out the transmission of a communication over an electronic communications network.
Preferences
The technical storage or access is necessary for the legitimate purpose of storing preferences that are not requested by the subscriber or user.
Statistics
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for statistical purposes. The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for anonymous statistical purposes. Without a subpoena, voluntary compliance on the part of your Internet Service Provider, or additional records from a third party, information stored or retrieved for this purpose alone cannot usually be used to identify you.
Marketing
The technical storage or access is required to create user profiles to send advertising, or to track the user on a website or across several websites for similar marketing purposes.
  • Manage options
  • Manage services
  • Manage {vendor_count} vendors
  • Read more about these purposes
View preferences
  • {title}
  • {title}
  • {title}
Manage Cookie Consent
To provide the best experiences, we use technologies like cookies to store and/or access device information. Consenting to these technologies will allow us to process data such as browsing behaviour or unique IDs on this site. Not consenting or withdrawing consent, may adversely affect certain features and functions.
Functional Always active
The technical storage or access is strictly necessary for the legitimate purpose of enabling the use of a specific service explicitly requested by the subscriber or user, or for the sole purpose of carrying out the transmission of a communication over an electronic communications network.
Preferences
The technical storage or access is necessary for the legitimate purpose of storing preferences that are not requested by the subscriber or user.
Statistics
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for statistical purposes. The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for anonymous statistical purposes. Without a subpoena, voluntary compliance on the part of your Internet Service Provider, or additional records from a third party, information stored or retrieved for this purpose alone cannot usually be used to identify you.
Marketing
The technical storage or access is required to create user profiles to send advertising, or to track the user on a website or across several websites for similar marketing purposes.
  • Manage options
  • Manage services
  • Manage {vendor_count} vendors
  • Read more about these purposes
View preferences
  • {title}
  • {title}
  • {title}
Ad Blocker Enabled!
Ad Blocker Enabled!
Our website is made possible by displaying online advertisements to our visitors. Please support us by disabling your Ad Blocker.

Sign In or Register

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below.

Lost password?