AccuWeather hurricane experts are forecasting that the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will be slightly below average.
The initial AccuWeather 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast is predicting:
- Eleven-16 named storms
- Four-seven hurricanes
- Two-four major hurricanes (category 3+)
- 3 – 5 direct US impacts.
The 2026 season is forecast to fall below the ten-year average for both total storms and hurricanes, even at the higher end of AccuWeather’s forecast.
Key factors that will influence the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season
El Niño developing
AccuWeather long-range experts say there is a 15% possibility of a Super El Niño developing in the second half of the hurricane season. On average, El Niño seasons produce about ten named storms and five hurricanes, compared to 15 storms and eight hurricanes during La Niña years. Neutral seasons average 13 named storms and seven hurricanes.
Exceptionally warm Atlantic waters
Water temperatures across much of the Gulf, Caribbean, and Atlantic are forecast to reach exceptionally warm levels again this summer. That heat extends hundreds of feet below the surface, providing additional fuel for storms. This increases the risk of rapid intensification.
‘Homegrown development’ near the US
Storms may form close to the US in the Gulf, western Caribbean, or western Atlantic off the southeast US coast. Storms that develop near the US often leave people with less time to prepare and evacuate.
Bermuda high position
May steer more storms away from the US, especially in the western Atlantic.
Saharan dust
Dust from Africa can periodically suppress storm development in the Atlantic Main Development Region.
