Ben Schilz predicts movements towards a sovereign Europe, quantum-ready encryption, and a slow goodbye to Big Tech.
The digital tug-of-war between open-source and proprietary software is not only underway but expected to accelerate in 2026. After years of loud promises but little delivery, the world has woken up. Privacy, sovereignty, and security aren’t just firmly on the agenda, they are a long-term necessity to ensure that companies and nations secure and control their data. However, not everyone is on the same page and, frankly, many have competing interests.
In the name of safety, governments continue to push for deeper access into our digital lives, whether at work or in the home. The EU’s vote on ChatControl may have been delayed, but the debate is far from over. The coming year will bring sharper clashes between states seeking surveillance powers and organizations determined to defend the principle of encryption and privacy rights.
While these debates continue, the private sector faces a reckoning on multiple fronts. Enterprises are rethinking just how convenient Big Tech is, encryption takes a quantum leap forward, and, now that the novelty of AI has worn off, there are serious questions that need to be answered about control and trust.
2026 will test the limits of digital privacy
Europe’s debate around ChatControl is only one front. Governments worldwide are advancing new surveillance mandates: the UK’s Online Safety Act implementation, France’s Loi SREN, India’s Digital Personal Data Protection Act, and Australia’s push for Client-Side Scanning. Each expands state access to private communications under the guise of safety.
The pattern is clear: privacy-preserving encryption is being reframed as an obstacle to law enforcement. If these trends converge, they could normalise mass scanning and end-to-end backdoors. Enterprises relying on secure collaboration must now evaluate whether their providers can withstand such regulatory pressure, technically, legally, and politically.
In 2026, defending privacy moves from advocacy to architecture. Vendors must prove they can deliver both compliance and confidentiality, without compromise.
Digital sovereignty becomes law, not vision
2026 marks the turning point: sovereignty stops being a political buzzword and becomes procurement reality. NIS2, DORA, and frameworks like SecNumCloud are now enforceable; buyers in government and critical industries can only choose vendors fully under EU control or meeting strict guardrails and criteria.
The misconception ‘EU hosting equals EU sovereignty’ is incorrect. A European data centre owned by an American parent remains under US law. True sovereignty demands legal, operational, and infrastructural independence. The new buyer question is ‘who truly controls our data?’ In 2026, that question will start to decide every contract.
Encryption evolves: from end-to-end to post-quantum
End-to-end encryption used to be the gold standard. In 2026, it is table-stakes. The future is open, scalable, and quantum-resistant. The IETF’s new Messaging Layer Security (MLS) standard marks the industry’s biggest leap since TLS and it is designed to be post-quantum ready. It replaces proprietary, closed encryption schemes with verifiable, interoperable cryptography that can evolve to resist quantum threats.
As quantum computing moves closer, closed encryption will become technical debt. The winners will be those building on open, auditable, and quantum-proof foundations.
Collaboration becomes a core attack vector
Phishing, credential theft, and supply chain compromise remain top attack methods and increasingly exploit collaboration tools as entry points. Shared channels with partners, guest access, and integrated calendars connect external threats to internal systems. Yet most organizations still overlook collaboration in their security posture.
With NIS2 and DORA raising the bar, securing these interfaces and isolating sensitive communication from exposed platforms is no longer optional.
Europe starts to unbundle Big Tech
Across Europe, CIOs and CISOs are quietly dismantling their dependency on American platforms. The age of the monolith is ending. Sovereign IT now means modular, interoperable, and vendor-agnostic stacks. Secure messaging platforms, sovereign file-sharing services, and Europe-based hosting providers are replacing one-size-fits-all suites.
This is not necessarily protectionism; it is led by operational resilience requirements. Lock-in is the new systemic risk. But Big Tech will not stand by. Expect intensified lobbying in Brussels and national capitals to slow or water down sovereignty efforts.
The fight for an independent European tech ecosystem is only beginning and it demands public awareness. Enterprises, policymakers, and citizens must understand what is at stake: Europe’s ability to control its digital future. The next wave of infrastructure must be federated, transparent, and sovereign by design – or it will not be European at all.
AI meets security: the sovereign intelligence era
The EU AI Act forces enterprises to know where models run, what data they access, and who governs them and by 2nd August 2026 the Act will be fully operational, with all provisions taking effect.
Sovereignty considerations will be an important aspect of this. True sovereign AI keeps intelligence and data under the same legal and operational roof: no external models scanning messages, no transatlantic data flow, and no opaque training pipelines.
The next frontier of digital sovereignty is not just who builds AI, but who controls it.
New challenges and innovations mean that the rate of change is accelerating year-on-year. These changes are not abstract. They will decide who controls data, who sets standards, and who leads in the next era of technology. Nations and enterprises that plan ahead, choose wisely, and invest in resilient digital foundations will be ready for what comes next. The rest will find the future decided for them.
Europe and its organizations stand at a defining moment. Decisions made now will shape how we communicate, collaborate, and compete for years to come. The choice ahead is clear: participant or spectator?
The author
Ben Schilz is CEO at Wire
