2026: a year of increased threats – and opportunities

I have seen many doom-laden threat forecasts about how the global organizational landscape might develop. However, few seem to also focus on the plus side, bearing in mind that crises sometimes create opportunities for innovation and that the point of resilience is not just survival but enabling the organization to thrive.

For this article, I have trawled through a number of 2026 forecasts looking for recurring topics and themes, to which I have also added my own experience, to extrapolate what lies ahead based on what has already occurred or is occurring.

What follows are some background thoughts as we enter 2026, followed by the top 10 threats from a UK perspective, often seen inappropriate reactions, and areas where opportunities might exist in 2026.

Background thoughts

Will 2026 be merely transitional, or will it be transformative? The transitioning of past world orders is clearly gaining pace, although it is not so clear how a new world order will look – or, more to the point, if it will ever solidify such that it can clearly be assessed. The continuing rise of China, the rapid increase of unregulated AI, and the US’s change of focus under President Trump offer challenges, but also opportunities.

Beyond this, the overall terrorist threat landscape for 2026 creates a picture of a sustained and high-tempo menace that spans both physical and cyber threats. So-called rogue nation-states no longer just target governments. They also focus on supply chains, data-rich enterprises, emerging tech firms, IP-heavy start-ups, universities, critical infrastructure, and anyone sitting on innovations that might shape the future.

In a threat update given on 16 Oct 2025, Director General of MI5, Ken McCallum, said that: “Since the start of 2020, MI5 and the police have disrupted 19 late-stage attack plots. And we’ve intervened in many hundreds of developing threats.”

By ‘late stage’, the head of MI5 was referring to advanced planned attacks that were shortly to take place, most likely to kill many and/or cause major disruption that would have occurred had they not been stopped.

Setting out the scale of the challenge, Mr. McCallum said: “But the aggregate scale of the terrorist threat remains huge. And the range of what’s coming at us – from terrorists holding poisonous Islamist, Extreme Right Wing or other ideologies – just keeps growing.”

The prevailing UK National Threat Level at the time of writing is ‘Substantial’, meaning a terrorist attack is considered likely.

Top 10 threats

1. Cyber. Advanced attacks on critical infrastructure (e.g. energy, transport, water, financial systems, etc.) could cause massive disruptions, as well as serious data breaches.
2. Terrorism and extremism. The threat of terrorism (see above), from rogue nations, established groups, and so-called home-grown extremists, remains very real and could evolve with new tactics leading to greater casualties and disruption.
3. Geopolitical tensions. Rising tensions between major and emerging powers, often under fickle leadership, could lead to worsening conflicts, escalating trade wars, and/or even open warfare, beyond what is already happening.
4. Climate change. Extreme weather events, rising sea levels, and biodiversity loss could lead to widespread disruption and humanitarian crises.
5. Pandemics. Every day we read of new infectious diseases or mutations of existing viruses that might easily emerge and spread, stressing global health systems and economies.
6. Economic instability. Inflation, economic recessions, and brittle supply chain disruptions are likely to affect global markets, leading to increased poverty and mass civil unrest.
7. Artificial Intelligence. Unregulated AI development could easily lead to serious problems. There are also concerns about the impacts should the AI bubble burst in a similar way to the dot-com crash in 2000.
8. Resource scarcity. Competition for resources such as rare earths or even water could lead to conflicts, particularly in vulnerable regions.
9. Misinformation and disinformation. The increasing spread of false information and disinformation, sometimes linked to advancements in AI, could further undermine trust in governments and institutions, creating even more unstable societies and business landscapes.
10. Global migration crises. Perhaps the most topical issue in the UK in 2025. Climate change, conflict, and economic pressures could lead to larger-scale migration, straining resources and social cohesion in host countries.

Often seen inappropriate reactions

• Short-term focus. Many organizations and governments prioritise immediate concerns over long-term threats, leading to a lack of preparation for future challenges.
• Optimism bias. Societies, groups, and organizations demonstrating an inherent belief that bad things are less likely to happen to them compared to others, leading to complacency about future risks.
• Cognitive dissonance. People often struggle to reconcile alarming information with their current priorities, beliefs, or lifestyles – leading to the downplaying of threats.
• Cultural factors. Often overlooked cultural beliefs and values that can influence how communities (business, government, and societal) perceive and respond to threats.
• Threat fatigue. Frequent exposure to news about threats leading to desensitisation, making threats appear less significant or urgent over time.
• Uncertainty and complexity. Difficulty in understanding, and a sense of scepticism surrounding many threats, can be overwhelming. There is a greater need for (1) risk intelligence, being the capacity to learn about risk from experience and the ability to estimate probabilities more accurately, and (2) isomorphic learning (identifying similar problems from otherwise different sectors, organizations, and structures).
• Confusion. Conflicting information and fake news can create turmoil, causing people to question the validity of genuine threats and reduce the opportunity for effective resilience.
• Psychological distance. Threats that feel distant (geographically or socially) may not evoke an appropriate or realistic response, leading to weak resilience and, worse still, apathy.
• Distrust. A lack of trust in politicians, institutions, or experts can quickly lead to dismissing warnings about potential threats, believing they are exaggerated or politically motivated.
• Economic and social priorities. Immediate economic or social issues (e.g. job security) often take precedence over more abstract future threats, leading to neglect of long-term planning.

Where opportunities might exist in 2026

• At the top, I suggest adopting a realistic culture of organizational resilience. This does not mean increasing resistance or becoming more robust. Rather, it is a state of constant awareness and alertness, rather than a discipline, strict obedience to a standard, or just another function. It should be a mindset based on learning, adapting, looking for opportunities, and, above all, being agile. Ideally, it should span the whole organization, on the basis that ‘the whole is greater than the sum of its parts’.
• Look for innovative solutions to emerging problems. This means identifying market and other gaps, then developing and/or expanding products and services. Create offerings that address specific challenges, such as remote working, the need for more savvy transport options, renewable energy, etc.
• Invest in sustainable practices. Is it time to invest in or develop sustainable technologies that address climate change and resource scarcity? Perhaps explore business models that promote recycling and sustainable resource use, reducing waste and creating new markets.
• Enhance cybersecurity measures. There seems little doubt that threat number one (see above) is increasing. Improved solutions to protect businesses from cyber threats, such as data protection software or consultancy services, will help others see you as competent, realistic, and worth investing in.
• Leverage data and technology. Use data analytics to predict trends and identify vulnerabilities, allowing for proactive measures and solutions. This could include developing AI solutions that streamline processes or enhance decision-making in response to threats.
• Generate greater focus on health and well-being. It has to be good governance to create in-house apps or devices that promote health monitoring, telemedicine (the use of technology to deliver clinical care at a distance), or mental health support. Also, offer services aimed at prevention and early detection of diseases, especially in the light of potential health crises. This applies to customer-facing revised service offerings and, especially, taking a responsible attitude to staff.
• Foster community resilience. Encourage cooperative business models that strengthen local economies and provide mutual support systems. As an extension of this, executives are urged to manage possible in-house tensions between defence and progression, and consistency and flexibility in business modelling when adopting organizational resilience.
• Pursue relevant education and awareness. Consider organising events to enhance trust in your organization by helping to educate individuals and businesses about potential threats and how to mitigate them. Produce informative content (e.g. blogs) to raise awareness.
• Form strategic partnerships. Partner with organizations and/or experts in fields relevant to emerging threats to share knowledge and resources, helping to create comprehensive solutions to what might otherwise appear to be complex issues.
• Spearhead market research. Stay attuned to changing consumer preferences and behaviours in response to threats, adapting products and services accordingly. In other words, horizon scanning. Be ready to pivot your business model or offerings based on emerging trends and needs – reinforcing the often-repeated need for agility.

Conclusion

First, the challenge is not to ignore an uncertain 2026, but to accept it as the continuing reality in a world of ‘permacrisis’.

Second, be aware that focusing on any of the inappropriate reactions listed above risks spending energy on things that you can do little about, by trying to control them, blame others, or overindulge in complaining.

Third, watch out for organizations using traditional ‘old normal’ strategy processes to cope with a sense of ‘new normal’, as they may find themselves playing catch-up with more agile competitors.

Fourth, diversify markets and revenue streams. Where possible, target multiple customer segments to buffer against shifts in demand.

Fifth, take a different look at risks and threats. Successful firms do not look to achieve ‘zero risk’, but rather experience ‘zero trauma’. It is about risk intelligence and realistic organizational resilience. Be prepared to change.

Sixth. Of particulate note when we consider changes in 2026, a day after the audacious US military operations in Venezuela, Donald Trump on 4 January renewed his calls for an American takeover of the Danish territory of Greenland. He also threatened military action against Columbia and declared the communist government in Cuba is ‘in a lot of trouble’. Who’s next I wonder?   It’s too early to say with certainty where all this is heading but it does touch on several of the top 10 threats already mentioned and the geopolitical turmoil that might follow. 

I suspect significant changes on the international stage are going to happen this year. The  expression ‘watch this space’ as we consider the future has never been so relevant. 

The author

Peter Power FBCI FIRM BA JP has considerable hands-on experience of real time events and for many years has supported various governments and organizations in several different countries. He occasionally appears on TV and radio as an expert guest. He is also a past member of the UK Security Review Commission (IPPR) and previous Chairman of the World Conference on Disaster Management. Peter is a co-author of the UK Cabinet Office / BSI standard on Crisis Management (BS11200) and in an earlier life was instrumental in helping to create/promulgate the UK ‘Gold/Silver/Bronze’ Crisis Command System. He is quoted in the UK Government Guide on Integrated Emergency Management and is the author of many guidebooks, including the original UK Govt. (then DTI) issued guidebook on business continuity. Nowadays his focus is very much on promoting organizational resilience.

Peter is an Editorial Advisor for Resilience Forward.